Even
the analyst who lowered his target price thinks so. Walter Piecyk of
BTIG kept his buy call on AAPL while taking the target down to $130 from $141 a share.
The reasoning behind the haircut is old news by now.
Piecyk is worried that the iPhone could lead AAPL to a 4% drop in
revenue this year, as a top-line rebound could be delayed until 2017.
The analyst says data suggest that existing iPhone users
are holding on to their current phones longer. Consumers who upgrade
their iPhones when a new one debuts are an important source of revenue
and have implications for Apple stock.
However, it may be premature to worry. Piecyk says we won’t know for sure for some time. From his note to clients:
“It will take a few quarters and the launch of the next iPhone to confirm if end users are, in fact, holding onto their phones longer.”
As evidenced by the buy rating, this is really just a
tweak to the analyst’s AAPL valuation model. Even at a lower price
target of $130 a share, Apple stock still has an implied upside of 20%
in the next 12 months or so. Any investor should be happy with that.
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Apple Stock Won’t Be on Sale for Long
The big takeaway from all this is that AAPL stock is still
a bargain. As we’ve argued before, it’s premature to proclaim the death
of the iPhone, and even at a slower growth rate, Apple stock is a buy
on valuation alone.
- 9 Stocks to Buy for Rip-Roaring Growth Potential
This is a stock that has been overly discounted by a
wide margin. AAPL stock changes hands at just under 11 times forward
earnings. That’s up from 10 not too long ago. Why does this matter?
Because that’s not how you value a tech stock with AAPL’s remaining
growth potential.
Telecommunications companies get low price-to-earnings
multiples because they’re all about dividends, not growth. Yet, Apple
stock has a lower P/E than Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) or AT&T Inc. (T).
Apple is a value stock picker’s dream thanks to valuation,
cash flow and cash on the books. Apple has $6.92 in cash per share.
Let’s back that out because you don’t pay cash for cash. That brings the
share price down to about $102, or 10 times forward earnings.
And all this despite a compound annual growth rate of almost 12% per annum? Earnings multiples are supposed to be higher than long-term growth rates, not lower.
The only thing really wrong with AAPL stock is soft
sentiment, and that probably won’t change until the iPhone 7 lands in
the fall. It also means shares may not be on sale for too much longer.
As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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