House Speaker Paul Ryan keeps trying to reject
the notion that, somehow, in this crazy election year, he could emerge
from a contested convention as the Republican Party's presidential
nominee.
Ryan on Tuesday insisted — yet again — that he
won't run for president this year, delivering a statement at the
Republican National Committee office in Washington.
"I do not want, nor will I accept, the nomination for our party," he said. "Count me out."
But no matter how many times the Wisconsin
Republican says that he won't be the nominee, the rumors have persisted,
fueled by the traditional business wing of the party, which has become
increasingly isolated this year.
Often the target of Donald Trump and Ted
Cruz's populist bombast, establishment Republicans are desperate for a
reasonable and safe conservative. They've been pinning their hopes and
dreams on Ryan, if not for 2016, then for 2020.
"He is smart, thoughtful and willing to find
common ground to get things done," said Bill Oberndorf, who co-founded
the investment firm SPO Partners & Co. "In short, he is everything
Republican voters have decided to reject in 2016. At the end of the day,
they will have stood on their conservative swords to nominate a
candidate [who] will elect Hillary Clinton president. How short-sighted.
How pathetic," Oberndorf said.
Whether or not Ryan manages this time to tamp
down the 2016 speculation, the business wing of the party is still eying
him for the 2020 contest.
"I hear his name over and over, and frankly
it's the only name I hear at this point," said Bill Greiner, chairman of
the board of Primary Bank and a former hedge fund manager. "Paul has a
lot of experience, both in budgets and finance."
Greiner said that, at a breakfast with a couple
of fiscal insiders late last month, the topic of discussion was their
hopes that Ryan might emerge as the nominee at the convention in
Cleveland. "I think he's the best hope," said Greiner. He noted that
Ryan's actions in stepping up to replace former Speaker John Boehner
were "well played out," and Greiner hasn't seen any regret from
Republicans.
The Ryan attraction goes beyond temperament,
his relative youth and his reputation as a policy wonk who, at age 46,
has already has been vetted nationally in a run for vice president in
2012.
Ryan's brand of conservative policy positioning
on such issues as slashing taxes, replacing Medicare benefits with
vouchers, immigration and deregulation of Wall Street, often wins
plaudits from conservatives for being bold changes — while rarely
offending old-line establishment Republicans.
During four years as House Budget Committee
chairman, Ryan proposed repealing Obamacare, cutting business tax rates,
ending the estate tax and consolidating programs for low-income
households. He sought to overhaul Medicare, the health program for
seniors, by giving future recipients a fixed amount of money to buy
insurance. Democrats say his plans would shred the social-safety net.
He also has supported allowing 11 million
undocumented immigrants to eventually become U.S. citizens, a stand
strongly opposed by many fellow Republicans.
Ryan's office has consistently rejected the
notion that he has a pattern of insisting he doesn't want a job he
actually wants, a reference to his initial reluctance to be considered
for the speaker's office last fall. Ryan emerged as the only plausible
candidate for speaker in the messy wake of Boehner's resignation.
Ryan aides insist that the Wisconsin
congressman's recent speeches on Republican unity and policy were about
the ideas he wants to inject into the fall campaigns, not a preamble to a
presidential agenda.
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