Trump has more than math to worry about in Cleveland

If Donald Trump wants to ward off defeat at a contested convention, he’s got more than just a vote of the delegates to worry about.
Every aspect of the Republican National Convention is a potential tripwire that motivated anti-Trump forces could deploy to waylay the mogul — from major processes to invalidate whole slates of delegates to minor inconveniences, like seating arrangements for delegates inside the arena, which could complicate negotiations if the convention becomes a free-for-all.

If Trump continues to lose local delegate fights at a rapid clip, he’ll be walking into a convention arena stacked with hostile delegates working to deny him the nomination. And those delegates can work arcane procedures and rules in ways large and small to impede his path.
“Everything is consequential in a contested convention,” said former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. “You’ve got to pay attention to everything.”
Interviews with campaign operatives, party insiders and GOP leaders — many of whom spoke on condition of anonymity — suggest campaigns and anti-Trump delegates are at least considering the procedural ways to gum up Trump’s path to the nomination even before most convention delegates have been selected. Though some scoffed at the notion that the convention minutiae would become flash points in a brawl involving Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, campaign officials repeatedly raised them as opportunities to game the convention process.
A look at some of their targets:
1. Disqualifying delegates
If Donald Trump narrowly crosses the threshold of 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination, the fight is still not over.
Campaigns and their allies are preparing to pepper delegates — and perhaps entire state delegations — with eligibility challenges meant to keep their rival’s supporters out of Cleveland. If Trump were to earn, say, 1,250 delegates, but an opponent were to successfully challenge the seating of South Carolina’s 50-delegate slate, Trump could find himself short of the magic number and facing a much murkier second ballot.

And South Carolina might be an obvious target. Trump won all 50 of the state’s delegates in a February primary, but the state requires its primary contenders to pledge loyalty to the Republican Party’s ultimate nominee. Trump rescinded that pledge last month. Now, he could face a challenge to his claim on South Carolina’s delegates.
“The Cruz campaign could raise the South Carolina issue as a serious question,” said one prospective delegate. “There are a variety of different ways to cause trouble.”
Though this process has been used sparingly in recent election cycles, campaign operatives expect challenges to fly throughout the spring. Challenges must be lodged with the Republican National Committee by mid-June in order to be receive a hearing at the convention. Those challenges are forwarded by the RNC to the convention’s Credentials Committee, a 112-member panel of delegates that judges complaints in the week leading up to the convention. That panel’s report gets a final vote on the convention floor (though challenged delegates are not permitted to vote).
Of course, Trump won’t be on the sidelines of this process. His campaign has already raised concerns about delegate selection procedures in Louisiana and Tennessee and could mount his own challenges to rivals’ slates.
2. Naming a chairman
The convention chairman is selected by the delegates in attendance and wields great authority to direct the proceedings, from the timing of nomination ballots to entertaining motions from delegates on the floor.
Previous, uncontroversial conventions have been governed by the same rules that guide the House of Representatives, so in those years, the natural choice for chairman has been the Republican House leader. This year, that would be Paul Ryan. But it isn’t an ordinary year.
Campaigns are eyeing a hostile takeover of the convention chairmanship — which could occur only with the delegates’ blessing — to ensure that the process works in their favor. It’s another reason delegate selection battles happening on the state level — which Trump has struggled in while Cruz has excelled — could become crucial.
One campaign insider signaled that the choice of chairman, for now, is likely to be a consensus pick of all three campaigns — and in that scenario, Ryan might actually be an easy choice, since he’s well-regarded by all three candidates, and he’s forcefully insisted he doesn’t intend to jump into the nomination fight himself.
“Take the guy at his word, that he’s not a candidate. He’s an honorable man,” said Charlie Black, a veteran convention strategist working with Kasich. “You could put anybody in the chair and claim they have ulterior motives.”
Black added that any discussion of forcing through a biased chairman is “hypothetical crap.”
3. Working the Rules
If Cruz continues to rout Trump in the delegate selection fight, he’ll enter Cleveland with an edge on the Rules Committee. The panel has enormous influence over who is eligible for the nomination — and whether new entrants will be allowed to participate.
“The Convention Rules Committee could theoretically set the calendar in certain ways, who can run the debate, limit time between ballots,” said one veteran convention delegate.
The committee has carte blanche to control the convention, though it’s typically made pro forma changes, since recent GOP primaries have been resolved before the election, though even less seismic changes have provoked controversy. When delegates loyal to Mitt Romney spearheaded changes to box out Ron Paul from sharing the convention stage in 2012, outraged Romney opponents sought to block changes on the convention floor. Their efforts were ignored by the convention chairman — then-House Speaker John Boehner.
The committee’s proposals must be ratified on the floor of the convention, but if one candidate has a disproportionate edge on the committee, it likely reflects a similar edge in the convention writ large.
4. Delay, delay, delay
The Republican National Convention is scheduled July 18-21, and RNC officials insist there’s no reason to worry about the fight for a nominee extending beyond that window — especially with the Democrats scheduled to hold their own convention a few days later.
“We will get our party business done in four days. The past two conventions have only been three days,” said Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the RNC’s convention planning committee. “We have made absolutely zero plans for any extended convention.”
RNC officials have argued that delegates will have ample time — including the late-night hours outside the typical boundaries of the convention — to parley with campaigns and form coalitions to select a nominee. “The schedule is built as such there’s an extra 48 hours, time you would normally be sleeping,” said one Republican operative who attended an RNC-organized meeting to discuss convention procedures.
But a hopelessly deadlocked process could brush up against that timeline, and a savvy campaign could force a delay as well. One senior campaign operative noted that there could be days between the first and second ballots at the convention, providing ample opportunity for campaigns to negotiate with indecisive delegates.
“When delegates get hungry and homesick, they’re more than likely to make rash decisions,” said one state party chairman. “I’ve seen that throughout the years at conventions. I think the longer it goes, the more likely it is that something crazy happens.”
Delegates and party insiders have begun questioning RNC leadership about the prospect of a convention that runs long — wondering about travel arrangements and hotel bookings.

Ohio Republican Party Chairman Matt Borges asked RNC leaders Tuesday about what would happen if the convention were to drag past its deadline. But early expectations are still that the convention will end on time.
“If Cruz and Trump hold a majority of [the rules committee], this will be orderly,” said Barry Bennett, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign. “No plans to go beyond four days.”
5. Exploiting logistics
Even manipulation on the margins can become a significant stumbling block. Most recent conventions have been uncontested, so the presumptive nominee has held enormous sway over the logistics — from the order of prime-time speeches to the hotels that candidates and their delegates reside in.
But this year, no one will control the program.
Instead, campaigns will wrangle for coveted speaking slots, which can be chits given to potential supporters in a freewheeling delegate battle. They’ll also seek to house supportive state delegations at the most convenient hotels — those inside the Secret Service perimeter surrounding the convention arena — placement that could become significant if the delegate battle takes multiple rounds and involves intensive negotiations.
“The biggest problem if you went to [the 2012 GOP convention in] Tampa, was the Secret Service lockdown,” said one Republican National Committee member. “Their circle of the perimeter was huge. If you’re inside, it’s great. But outside was a nightmare. Add to the problem getting around and communication in general.”
It’s unclear, for now, how these battles will be decided.
In a contested year, the committeeman added, “It’s tactically important.”